Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 031906 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 306 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNTIL A WARM FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1238 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO PLACE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS AND CENTRAL CPV FOR THIS AFTN. RADAR SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAYBE A SPOT 0.01 OR SO IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS AFTN...AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH BTV ALREADY 76F. THINKING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS. ANY BRIEF SHOWER WILL QUICKLY COOL SFC BACK INTO THE 60S...BUT SHOULD WARM BACK UP AFTER SHOWER PASSES AND SUN RETURNS. WIND GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 401 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE VERY SIMILAR RESULTS TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED MONDAY MORNING AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. THAT WILL SOON SUBSIDE THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO DROP SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BRINGING A SCATTERED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION AS THE LARGER GLOBAL MODELS BRING A WIDESPREAD PATH OF SHOWERS HOWEVER THE SMALLER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LINE THAT FALTERS AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS SUCH I BLENDED BOTH COMING UP WITH MORE OF A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A 20-30% CHANCE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE CONSENSUS OF ALL THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEFINITELY DOES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL. CURRENT QPF TOTALS SEE ABOUT ABOUT 0.10" TO 0.25" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE LINE POTENTIALLY DISSIPATES. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THAT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH AREAS OF LOW RH`S HOWEVER THE OVERLAP OF LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL SO I`M NOT READY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SEEING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S WARMING TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT RISK OF PRECIPITATION RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOMEHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE WARMEST DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE FRIDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPS REACH +12 TO +14C. WITH SOME SUN...80 DEGREES CERTAINLY REACHABLE. CLEAR NIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RETURN OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COOLING AS MUCH LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS AND ALSO SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM...AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT MPV/BTV/PBG. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY AT MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOWS A DEFICIT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO VERMONT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH ONLY A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 26% AND 35% BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THAN RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VT AND NY. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS BELOW 2000 FEET AND LIMITED AREAS OF GREEN UP PER COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE USERS...SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MIN RH`S...TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND SPEEDS. && .MARINE... WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE LAKE AND RIVER WATERS ARE STILL QUITE COLD. BELOW IS A REMINDER ABOUT COLD WATER SAFETY. EARLY IN THE BOATING SEASON...WATER TEMPERATURES ON RIVERS...PONDS AND LAKES REMAIN RATHER COLD. IMMERSION IN COLD WATER CAN BE LIFE THREATENING VERY QUICKLY DUE TO HYPOTHERMIA AND THE BODIES INABILITY TO WORK EFFICIENTLY IN THE COLD WATER. THEREFORE...IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CONSIDER POSTPONING SMALL CRAFT BOATING ACTIVITIES UNTIL WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME WARMER. HOWEVER...IF YOU CHOOSE TO VENTURE OUT...WEAR ALL RECOMMENDED COLD WATER PROTECTIVE GEAR...INCLUDING A LIFE JACKET...IN THE EVENT OF AN ACCIDENT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS FIRE WEATHER...TABER MARINE...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.