Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280213 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1013 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1006 PM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT ONCE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...AND WITH LACK OF ANY COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. MINS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT, LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S, PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT TREND TO VFR ANTICIPATED AFTER 03-04Z. THOUGH BKN TO OVC MVFR/VFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE, REGIONAL RADAR ALSO DEPICTS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNRESTRICTED, BUT MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 5 SM. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/LIFTING OF CEILINGS NOTED NORTH OF MONTREAL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST BROKEN VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN CEILINGS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THOUGH GREATER MIXING THAN PRIOR DAYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AS WELL. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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