Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250229 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1029 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER TONIGHT AS VORT LOBE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH DUE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET. THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF SATURDAY. STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS. ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV

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