Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161125 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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