Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050004 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 804 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 718 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS WINDS TAPER OFF AND HUMIDITIES START TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP FIRE CREWS STILL DEALING WITH ANY FIRES. THE WINDS TAPERING OFF IS ALSO EVIDENT ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A WEAKER WIND FIELD AND LESS MIXING THAN MONDAY ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING A FEW GUSTS IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR MPV WILL REACH IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT DRIER AIR AROUND 850MB WHERE THE DWPTS FALL BELOW 0C MIXING TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 23% TO 33% RANGE....WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTN TOWNS TO L70S IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN AT 5 TO 15 MPH DAILY. EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT ON TUES NIGHT WITH 1028 MB SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS BY WEDS MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS TO M/U 30S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED STARTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 6 TO 8C...WITH DRY AIR MASS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S MTN TOWNS TO L/M 70S WARMER VALLEYS. WILL TREND COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT NIGHT AND WARMER DURING THE DAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 323 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. ALSO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN A BIT COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WHILE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR JUST A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT AROUND 03Z-07Z...WITH SHOWERS GONE FROM THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...BUT DYING OFF VERY QUICKLY AND SHIFTING TO LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOME LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE VERY SOON AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS SPEEDS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXISTS TONIGHT...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN VERMONT AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES LOWER INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS ARE CRITICALLY LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUN...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FURTHER DRYING OF THE 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... AS OF 718 PM EDT MONDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPER DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR A BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...EVENSON/MV FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON MARINE...EVENSON

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