Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280757 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 357 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...PESKY LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY, GRADUALLY LOSING IT`S INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE MECHANISM FOR LIFT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NC/NE VT. WE WILL HOWEVER REMAIN UNDER WEAKLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO A FORECAST OF VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST/PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TODAY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED PBL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS SO USING STANDARD DRY ADIABATIC MIXING RATES FROM 925 MB YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EAST TO WEST. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, TRENDING A TAD GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS PBL DEEPENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD TREND CLR/PC OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED MOS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S APPEAR ON TRACK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO OUR AREA. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT BLOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST HOWEVER, SO THE COMBINATION OF RETROGRADING, THOUGH THINNING MARITIME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION. REGARDLESS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (COOLEST NC/NE VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THE FEEL OF SPRING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE RETURNED.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 337 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT FOR US LOCALLY IS THAT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU BELIEVE, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. I TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT ECMWF INFLUENCE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHADOWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE RESULTING POP GRIDS SHOW 10-15 PERCENT FOR POPS. AS THE SYSTEM PHASES IS DEVELOPS A PRETTY GOOD MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN AS IT MOVES NORTH OFFSHORE IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE OFFSHORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. "SPRING" LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE IN PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. GONE WILL BE THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND WELCOME TO WARMER TEMPS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW WARM WE GET BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 925MB TEMPS IN THE 9-11C RANGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE AND 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS UNDER DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION LOWER THAN 2000 FEET. 925 TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE APPROACHING 13 DEGREES C WITH WARMER TEMPS TO NORTHWEST OVER ONTARIO AS HIGH AS 15. THE WARM 850/925MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. I`VE CURRENTLY GOT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A SIMILAR WARMING TREND AS THE MAX TEMPS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA AND BY THE MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK AND MPV OVERNIGHT. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS VFR TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO LIKELY A MIX OF BKN/SCT VFR CLOUD COVER TRENDING TOWARDS IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. NO EXPECTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS TOMORROW WE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED EXPECT THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP GUSTING 15-20KTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AS THE NORTHERN NEW YORK SITES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY 05-07KTS WHEREAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING WINDS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 9-11KTS GUSTING TO 17KTS AT PBG AND MPV AS OF THE LATEST OBS. UPSTREAM OBS ALL POINT TO VFR CONDITIONS SO THE MVFR AT SLK AND MPV WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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