Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 182012 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 412 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE ENDED UP WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND SOME WIND GUSTS 30-35KT WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR. THESE HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS LATE AFTERNOON HEATING STILL EFFECT AT CREATING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. KEEPING THINGS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 412 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DRY AND SEASONAL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TURNS UNSETTLED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH 0.75 TO 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AS A STRONG 925-850MB JET OF 40-60KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THINKING GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS TOP OUT AROUND 40MPH. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S COOLEST IN THE EAST WITH COOL UPSLOPE SE FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 412 PM EDT... UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY/NIGHT. AN OCCLUSION WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A TRIPLE POINT OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT. LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE SEEING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO EVEN A SPOT 60F. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...POISED TO SEND MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT ITSELF SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AS PIECES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATE AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THE MOST ROBUST WAVE OF ENERGY IS HINTED AT CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...WITH SOME FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT NIGHT...TO MOSTLY SNOW AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -1C TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MOST. BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE FINALLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE REGION AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOW PLACE THE REGION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIME OF DAY AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT. TEMPERATURES ALSO QUITE SIMILAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS THE 30S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 20S IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BTV/PBG/MPV THROUGH 21Z...ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...BROKEN DECK OF VFR CLOUDS WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS STILL SOUTHWEST AT MPV/RUT TO START...BUT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LIKELY BETWEEN 19-20Z. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 20-30 KNOTS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS 03Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME LINGERING TERRAIN- ENHANCED STRATO-CU. UNCERTAIN AS TO EXTENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS IS THERE. WILL SHOW MVFR OVERNIGHT AT MPV/SLK FOR NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...SO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM SW- NE. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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