Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241942 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL, PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF SNOW. SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION). TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE, SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET. THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE SAT MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/MV

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