Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051144 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 744 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 423 AM EDT TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GIVEN EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER SOIL CONDITIONS...SO HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY`S TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT. LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECOND LOW PASSES EVEN CLOSER TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT SEEING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ON SATURDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 423 AM EDT TUESDAY...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WAS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...SO THE REGION REMAINS QUITE DRY. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SO FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS ARE CRITICALLY LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUN...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FURTHER DRYING OF THE 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. && .MARINE... AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON/WGH MARINE...WGH

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