Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200248 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH. OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST. BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING, DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE, AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER, INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING, WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN 4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-016>019. NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029>031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON

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