Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171135 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY! && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID- DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. 00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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