Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251012 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 612 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOW DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN ME...WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBONS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. NEXT 5H VORT AND MOISTURE IS CRNTLY OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WL DIVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY/VT TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST BTV4KM AND NAM12 SHOW BEST 1000 TO 700MB RH AND OMEGA ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST QPF FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...CHC IN THE NEK...AND SCHC ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WL START AROUND 500 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY JUMP TO 2800 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS LLVL WARMING OCCURS. QPF WL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS...WITH VALUES GENERALLY <0.10 WITH SNOWFALL BTWN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 2500 FEET. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WL MENTION HIGHS 35 TO 40 MTNS TO 45 TO 50F CPV/SLV...AND MID 50S VSF. IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M 40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 611 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS VT/NY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUE/WED WITH MUCH NEEDED DRYING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. DESPITE THIS BRIEF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LARGE TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENETERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED NGT/THU THRU FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT DOESNT APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS THIS PAST WEEK AND TEMPS COOLING FROM MID WEEK HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS RECENT AS WELL. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV. STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT. ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW

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