Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262321 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK, AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE HIGHER SUMMITS. LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL. PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS. RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD. 12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. 12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

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