Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260538 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS OUR CWA AND REMOVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN NORTHERN VT. CRNT OBS SHOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO MID 40S VALLEYS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...WITH ONLY ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S/L40S VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH, CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LOCONTO

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