Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170454 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM 00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE 04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT), TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...JMG/WGH

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