Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 801 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 711 PM EDT FRIDAY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE GENERATED A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SERN ONTARIO...WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ZONES AND NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS THRU 02Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE THAT THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 02Z. MADE ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA TODAY EXCEPT FOR CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHICH HAVE SEEN MORE IN WAY OF SUNSHINE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY... OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF A CHANGE FOR LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING. COMBINATION OF LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...DURING SATURDAY OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY TO ONE OF MORE CONTINENTAL CHARACTER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE WESTERLY AND ANTICYCLONIC OVER TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODEST WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +6C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COUPLED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THEN ON SUNDAY WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S. ONE SMALL CAVEAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING SHOWER WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 356 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS AND RIDGING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON FRIDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WARM...THOUGH DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-8 KNOTS. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TREND SKC- SCT OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND VFR SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND CENTRAL VERMONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS (4-5 KNOTS) FOR RUT OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE WINDS (5-10 KNOTS) TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PBG. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. 12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. 00Z TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS/MV

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