Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020532 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 132 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY... FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS THERE ISN`T REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF DRY AIR MOVING IN EASTWARD OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS LINE OF THINKING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1037 PM FRIDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 23Z GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED SOUTHWARD COINCIDENT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IR IMAGERY AT 0230Z INDICATES JUST SCATTERED MID- LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL VT. OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKING AT EARLY A.M. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. EXPECTED LOW NEAR 44F AT BTV OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...DURING SATURDAY OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY TO ONE OF MORE CONTINENTAL CHARACTER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE WESTERLY AND ANTICYCLONIC OVER TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODEST WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +6C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COUPLED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THEN ON SUNDAY WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S. ONE SMALL CAVEAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING SHOWER WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 356 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS AND RIDGING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON FRIDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WARM...THOUGH DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-8 KNOTS. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TREND SKC- SCT OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND VFR SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND CENTRAL VERMONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS (4-5 KNOTS) FOR RUT OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE WINDS (5-10 KNOTS) TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PBG. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. 12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. 00Z TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS/MV

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