Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES


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