Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD DROPS SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS
TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS
BELOW 2000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUESDAY RETURNING THE
REGION TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. BASED ON GOOD MIXING AND VERY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S CPV/SLV WITH M/U
70S IN THE MTN TOWNS...INCLUDING THE NEK. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 39
MPH AT KMSS THIS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS OVER THE CPV AND MOST OF
VT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC HEATING CONTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTN...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20% RANGE...BEFORE
INCREASING AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ACROSS THE OTTAWA
VALLEY...BUT GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THIS AFTN.

HAVE UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE A USER REQUESTED RED FLAG WARNING
FOR ENTIRE CWA FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY FINE FUELS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW MIN RH`S TO DROP BTWN 20 AND 30% MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTN...BUT WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT. EXPECTING
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 MPH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE ALIGNED
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. ANY PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TWD
SUNSET ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO VT
OVERNIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.25" AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS FCST BELOW...

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY BEGIN
HEATING UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAY BREAK. TEMPS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S WITH
MID 50S ELSEWHERE AND EXPECT TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
MOST LIKELY REACHING THE 80S FOR A DAYTIME MAX TEMP BEFORE THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST 4-8 KTS
ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A LOVELY DAY AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST DAY IN
THE 80S IN BURLINGTON SINCE 10/15/2014. THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE SO OTHER THAN A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE TEMPS IN
THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM MONDAY...WE WILL DRY OUT TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL WARM THE AREA VERY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS
OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
WELL MIXED UP TO 7000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE WELL
MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTING 20-30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND 15-20KTS ACROSS VERMONT.

THE DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION TO WARM INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 80F BEING A REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN STILL BEING QUITE COLD THE
AIR TEMP OVER THE LAKE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND SO ACROSS
THE BROAD LAKE I`VE ONLY GOT MAX TEMPS TODAY WARMING TO AROUND 70
AND THE NEAR SHORE AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...
BY 23Z THIS EVENING OR 7PM, EXPECT THE FIRST SHOWERS TO START TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND MEETS MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT IT TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SEE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BECOME SHADOWED FROM THE
SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER EXPECT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO COMBING WITH THE WEAK
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB VORT AXIS AND PRODUCE A FEW
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT EXPECTING TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.10" TO
0.30". SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY I CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST BUT
IT WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH NEW YORK.

BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO A PATTERN OF NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INDICATED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY SOMEHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. ALSO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...THEN A BIT COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING INBETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT MSS WHERE GUSTS 30-35 KTS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...WITH SOME
LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. SHOWERS WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 05Z-10Z TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON....WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN
18% AND 28%. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO NORTHERN VT...WHILE THE LOWEST RH VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE RESULTED IN FINE FUELS
BECOMING VERY DRY BELOW 2000 FEET...ACCORDING TO THE VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FOREST...PARKS AND REC AND NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT
OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...WHICH ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 23Z.

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT OVERNIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1144 AM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE ARE JUST 15-25
KNOT THRESHOLD. THOUGH LAKE TEMPERATURES LIMIT MIXING DEPTH, A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES PREFERENTIALLY ALONG SOUTH- FACING EXPOSURES.

BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS
IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA
GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV
MARINE...LOCONTO



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