Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051927 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...LASTING RIGHT THOUGH THE WORKWEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE DANGER. CONDITIONS THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH OFFERS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING TRAILS BACK TO A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN NORTHEASTWARD. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH, BUT AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO NOT A COMPLETELY CLEAR NIGHT, BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO STOP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUICKLY TONIGHT EITHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REBOUND FROM LOW AFTERNOON VALUES WITH THE FALLING TEMPS. LOOKING AT LOWS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN MESSAGE IN THIS PERIOD IS HIGH AND DRY, AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRETTY SIMILAR EACH DAY AND NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRODUCING SIZABLE DIURNAL RANGES WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME SUN AND SHARP COOLING AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LARGELY TERRAIN/LAKE- BREEZE DRIVEN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND EXTREMELY DRY FINE FUELS MAKING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES. FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS, SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THERMAL FIELDS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C AT 850 MB BY THURSDAY. WE SHOULD MIX TO THIS LEVEL AT LEAST, BUT LIKELY EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT. AFTER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS DUE TO SUNSHINE AND DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE UPPER 70S/SPOT 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE, STILL HAVE A GOOD RESERVOIR OF 925-700 MB DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN, BUT GUIDANCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER EACH DAY. IT MEANS DEWPOINTS AREN`T LIKELY TO FALL QUITE AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO AFTERNOON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, DUE TO ROUGHLY OFFSETTING EFFECTS FROM WARMING AIR TEMPS AND GRADUAL RISE IN DEWPOINTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER WITH UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES AS WE PROGRESS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. MOST PROBLEMATIC WILL BE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF A SEMI-STATIONARY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SCT THUNDER IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME WITH THIS MORNING`S MODELS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY SETTING UP ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING, IT WOULD SEEM A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD TEND TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND HAVE LEANED CONSERVATIVELY TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THIS MORNING`S CANADIAN GLOBAL AND ECMWF OUTPUT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH PAST THE INTL BORDER. THIS SETUP APPEARS TO HAVE MERIT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGING AND SOME SORT OF SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS, HAVE OFFERED CHANCE POPS IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME WITH AT LEAST A NOMIMAL THREAT OF SCT THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST VALUES MAINLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THAT, QUITE A WARM DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MEAN 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND +20C UNDER PARTIAL TO FULL SUNSHINE AND A DEEPLY MIXED PBL TO NEAR 750 MB. THUS MAX TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S APPEARS REASONABLE WITH MID-UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLING BACK SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. BY NEXT TUESDAY MODELS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE ROBUST ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER, MORE SEAONAL TEMPERATURES. AFTER ALL, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPIATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING SCT TO OCCNLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 20 TO 30 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY-12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 12Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF VERMONT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG CONDITION ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION, ONE- AND TEN-HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION (UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM LAST NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE). FUTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE, AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19, AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15. && .MARINE... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG FIRE WEATHER...LOCONTO MARINE...LOCONTO

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