Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030807 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 407 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNTIL A WARM FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 401 AM EDT SUNDAY... BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE MORNING UNDER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK 500MB VORT DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE ONTARIO REGION. WITH HOW DRY THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS I DONT EXPECT MANY RETURNS IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AS THE VORT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IT WILL COLLIDE WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AND PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE GREENS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME ELEVATE CAPE IN THE AREA. THE MAIN REASON I`M NOT TOO BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. I EXPECT WE WILL REMAIN DRYER THAN THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BECAUSE A QUICK LOOK AT UP STREAM OBS SHOW THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL RH AND DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES. SO I KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER... AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE AT BEST LIMITED. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH 850 TEMPS BETWEEN 8-9C RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 401 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE VERY SIMILAR RESULTS TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED MONDAY MORNING AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. THAT WILL SOON SUBSIDE THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO DROP SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BRINGING A SCATTERED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION AS THE LARGER GLOBAL MODELS BRING A WIDESPREAD PATH OF SHOWERS HOWEVER THE SMALLER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LINE THAT FALTERS AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS SUCH I BLENDED BOTH COMING UP WITH MORE OF A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A 20-30% CHANCE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE CONSENSUS OF ALL THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEFINITELY DOES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL. CURRENT QPF TOTALS SEE ABOUT ABOUT 0.10" TO 0.25" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE LINE POTENTIALLY DISSIPATES. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THAT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH AREAS OF LOW RH`S HOWEVER THE OVERLAP OF LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL SO I`M NOT READY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SEEING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE IN THE MID TO LOW 50S WARMING TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AND SPRING-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN 13Z-15Z...AS MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 00Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY-18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 18Z MONDAY-12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOWS A DEFICIT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO VERMONT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH ONLY A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 26% AND 35% BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THAN RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VT AND NY. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS BELOW 2000 FEET AND LIMITED AREAS OF GREEN UP PER COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE USERS...SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MIN RH`S...TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND SPEEDS.
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&& .MARINE... WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE LAKE AND RIVER WATERS ARE STILL QUITE COLD. BELOW IS A REMINDER ABOUT COLD WATER SAFETY. EARLY IN THE BOATING SEASON...WATER TEMPERATURES ON RIVERS...PONDS AND LAKES REMAIN RATHER COLD. IMMERSION IN COLD WATER CAN BE LIFE THREATENING VERY QUICKLY DUE TO HYPOTHERMIA AND THE BODIES INABILITY TO WORK EFFICIENTLY IN THE COLD WATER. THEREFORE...IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CONSIDER POSTPONING SMALL CRAFT BOATING ACTIVITIES UNTIL WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME WARMER. HOWEVER...IF YOU CHOOSE TO VENTURE OUT...WEAR ALL RECOMMENDED COLD WATER PROTECTIVE GEAR...INCLUDING A LIFE JACKET...IN THE EVENT OF AN ACCIDENT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH FIRE WEATHER...TABER MARINE...WFO BTV

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