Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020840 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 440 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CRESTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL RIDGE EAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL RIDGE TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THE TRANSITION WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BTWN 8PM AND AROUND 3 AM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE 40S DOWNEAST INTO CENTRAL MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WNDS/SKY/AND POP. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED HPC QPF GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO SPRING ON FRIDAY AND THEN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MILD DAY AND WILL ACTUALLY FEEL SPRINGLIKE AS WSW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD/ARCTIC FRONT BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING, BUT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY CLEAR W/SUN RETURNING HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD. WE ARE TALKING 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND POSSIBLE MID 50S FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY W/WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. THIS WILL AID IN MUCH MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE MOVEMENT/BREAKUP AND RIVER STAGES TO RISE SOME. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT WATERSHEDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD/ARCTIC FRONT APCHS. THE CHALLENGE NOW COMES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL SUPPORT THE FRONT SLIDING QUICKLY TO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT W/LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT THE MID ATLC REGION AND MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SETUP WOULD LEAD TO A COLDER SOLUTION W/RAIN GOING TO SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SNOW FROM CENTRAL AREAS ON NORTH. SNOW EXPECTED FOR EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY W/SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS STILL CONSISTENT W/ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST & WARMER. THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN AT THE ONSET AND THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN EARLY SATURDAY, RAIN GOES OVER TO SNOW W/SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ATTM W/THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWING AND OPEN WAVE AND A MORE SW FLOW, THINKING HERE IS THAT THE SYSTEM FOR ONE WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND QPF FROM THE ECMWF COLD BE OVERDONE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS SEASON. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF A CONSENSUS APCH AND A SOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. FRONTOGENESIS/BANDING CAN BE EXPECTED W/THIS EVENT LEADING TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY SATURDAY AND NNW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH W/HIGHER GUSTS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 9 INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WE COULD BE SEEING SOME TYPE OF WINTER HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT, BUT SINCE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, DECIDED TO HOLD ON ANY OTHER WINTER HEADLINES. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN ACTIVE AND COLDER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN GEAR FOR THIS TERM. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE A COLD AND BREEZY DAY W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS HITTING THE SINGLE NUMBERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION ON MONDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE INTO THE NEW BRUNSWICK W/ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST. AS STATED ABOVE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS A A SERIES OF LOW PRES WAVES MOVE IN ALONG A STALLED FRONT BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THIS EVENT. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES EARLY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING CEILINGS. MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN SITES...BECOMING IFR ALL SITES THIS EVENING IN RAIN AND SLEET BGR AND BHB. SNOW AND SLEET NRN SITES. PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN SITES OVERNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AROUND 3 AM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH CONDITIONS BCMG MVFR BY END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: VFR DROPPING TO VFR AND QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/RAIN-SNOW FOR KBGR AND KBHB AND SNOW FROM KHUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FIRST TO MVFR AND THEN VFR. VFR TO START OUT ON EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN A TURN TO MVFR AND IFR MAINLY N OF KBGR W/SNOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 11 PM TONIGHT 2 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WE COULD BE SEEING GALE FORCE WINDS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS IT RACES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NNW WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS W/GUSTS HITTING 40 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD A RANGE OF 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT

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