Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 240855 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 455 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN CHANGE TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY TONIGHT TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AROUND AN INCH AGAIN POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN SUNDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QPF. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF USING 34 DEGREES FOR THE CUT OFF TEMPERATURE FOR ALL RAIN. THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ARE FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND THE WINDS FROM THE MOSG25. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN TODAY. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. WIND WAVE IS EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW 1 FOOT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WAVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .HYDROLOGY... MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.