Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271312 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 912 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 910 AM UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK, AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS, WEATHER, AND QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TODAY MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR POPS... SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE ECMWF... GFS AND NAM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO WILL USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR WINDS WILL USE THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SAME UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TERM W/SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE IN THE TERM. TUESDAY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL START OUT DRIER, BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON, ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS W/SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION W/HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. THEREFORE, PRECIP TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE OF RAIN SHOWERS W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST 00Z NAM AND GFS WHICH WERE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO EDGE THE POPS UP BY 10% AND GIVEN THE LLVL CONVERGENCE FORECAST, BROUGHT THE WESTERN EDGE BACK INTO N-CENTRAL AREAS. QPF FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.10" AT BEST W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE ENE SIDE OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT UNSETTLED W/ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING S ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT W/THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF MAINE AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE W/20-30%. DRIER FURTHER S W/SOME SUN POSSIBLE. TEH STACKED LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY LIFT E LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY W/A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AND SHOWERS ENDING. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER BY 3-5 DEGREES AND READINGS APCHG NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY FOR THURSDAY BEING A DRY AND IMPROVING DAY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE FROM CANADA WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT UPPER LOW BUT SHOWS SOME WEAK RIDGING. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HAD THE REGION STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF W/CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY AND WARMER DAY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE, DECIDED ON A CONSENSUS APCH AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS(20%) AND MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE N AND W AND LEFT THE REST OF THE REGION DRY FOR NOW. THIS LINES CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING AND W/THIS IN MIND, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMER W/THE POTENTIAL FOR AOA NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES IS SHOWN TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY W/VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FOR KBGR AND KBHB FOR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES CLOSER. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM IS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATER TODAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME PRIMARY WAVE GROUP AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 0300Z. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP OFF BELOW 25 KTS W/SEAS 2-4 FT. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT

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