Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060005 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE... SECONDARY CDFNT IS SPREADING VIRGA SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVNG. DWPT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FM 20-25 DEGREES UNDER EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS BUT WL CONTINUE CHC SHOWERS THIS EVNG ACRS FAR NORTH AS THERE WERE A FEW DROPS ON WINDOWS EARLIER. ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO TWEAK HRLY T/TD VALUES AND WINDS. HV ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... THE MAIN FOCUS AS HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FIRE DANGER. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE FROM CANADA THIS EVENING W/SOME SHOWERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE NORTH OF THE MILLINOCKET-HOULTON REGION. LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500MB LAYER PROGGED TO HIT 7.0 C/KM THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SB CAPE TO BE < 100 JOULES W/LIS ABOVE 0. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS. DECIDED TO ADD SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 35 MPH W/THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL FALL APART AS THE FRONT DROP SE TONIGHT AND FORCING WEAKENS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS TO DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH ESPECIALLY FROM HOULTON ON SOUTH. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS COOLER AND DRIER. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECENT JET MAX OF 50 KTS FROM 850 TO 700 MBS SHOWING UP ON THE 12Z UA IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3 KM) OF 8.0 C/KM AND THE JET MAX WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MIXING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF THE BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST POTENTIAL OF 30+ MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURESAREA FORECAST TO BE NEAR AOA NORMAL. ALL THIS LEADING TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THURSDAY WILL BRING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WILL DIVIDE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO CENTRAL AREAS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. THE NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR PUSHES NORTH AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LOW FROM CANADA WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PULLING INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME CLEARING OVER THE SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERING WITH THE FRONT DOWNEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOUR W/GUSTY WNW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY APPROACHING 30 KTS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY, BUT MAY LOWER TO MVFR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT MAY BE MVFR DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SCA EXPECTED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE W/SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN BELOW 4 FT. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH W/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND THE MAIN FOREST SERVICE ON THIS POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE HIGH FIRE DANGERS INTO THURSDAY. HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER

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