Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171014 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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615AM UPDATE... REDUCED QPF AND POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MUCH WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL AT LEAST HAVE A BRIEF SHOWER. AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TOWARDS 60F OR HIGHER WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS OF THE YEAR. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING A BIT OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTS TOWARDS 30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MAY PROVIDE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WK WV WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. NO PCPN EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z. 00Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WV THAN EC AND HV SIDED MORE WITH AN OPEN WV SOLN, LEANING MORE TWD THE EURO AND WPC. AS WV HEADS OFFSHORE EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG INVERTED TROF IN SRN AND WRN ZONES SAT EVNG. HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST SAT NGT WITH NRLY FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OUT OF CANADA. H8 TEMPS DROP TWD -8C BY 12Z SUN. MIN TEMPS FOR SUN MRNG WL BE SVRL DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR, IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO ARND 30 INTERIOR DOWNEAST. HIPRES BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT WL ENCROACH TWD AREA DRG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS BCMG LGT THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH FULL MIXING EXPECTED UP TO 800MB. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS ARND 50F ACRS THE CROWN TO M50S FOR THE SOUTH, THO GIVEN FULL SUN EXPECTED TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY LATER SHIFTS. DRY WX CONTINUES THRU END OF SHORT TERM, THO MAY SEE JUST A SMALL CHC FOR POPS TWD 00Z TUE THO IT LOOKS AS IF UPR LVL RIDGE WL HOLD TIGHT ACRS CWA THRU THIS TIME. SKIES WL CLD UP DRG THE MRNG AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PUT A DAMPER ON TEMP RISE ALTHO IT STILL LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS WL RISE TO NR NORMAL HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... START OF THE EXTNDD FEATURES H5 LOW CLOSING OFF OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOVING EAST. THIS WL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SET UP MON NGT WITH FIRST IN A SERIES OF WVS POSSIBLY SPREADING IN OVRNGT. 00Z EURO IS HOLDING ON TO COLDER AIR MORESO THAN LATEST GFS, THUS HV TRENDED TEMPS DOWN ACRS NW ZONES TO ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW BTWN 06Z-2Z TUE. POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT SVRL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN ZONES LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIST FM TUE MRNG THRU WED MRNG WITH OVERALL QPF AMNTS THRU THIS TIME ARND 0.50 INCHES. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN WED AFTN/NGT BFR NEXT WV AFFECTS REGION. AFT THIS, MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW CLOSED LOW OVR NERN U.S. BUT DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT WHICH IS NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT WITH CLOSED LOWS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIG/VIS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO MAINE. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY -SHSN MON NIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING THE 25 KT CRITERIA AND SEAS GETTING ABOVE THE 5 FT CRITERIA. WILL MAINTAIN THE END TIME FOR THE SCA. SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE MET THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER ICE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON OUR NORTHERN RIVERS. THREE ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE FIRST ONE IS ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORT FAIRFIELD/CARIBOU TOWN LINE. THE BACKUP OF WATER FROM THIS JAM WAS FLOODING GRIMES ROAD AND THE ROAD REMAINS CLOSED. THE SECOND JAM IS LOCATED AT DICKEY BRIDGE...WITH THE THIRD NEAR FRENCHVILLE...BOTH ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER. THE JAM NEAR DICKEY APPEARS QUITE LARGE AS ICE CONTINUES TO PILE UP AGAINST A STILL-FROZEN STRETCH OF RIVER UPSTREAM. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA. THE ICE JAM AND FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARDS 60F WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...ICE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE AROOSTOOK...SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL. COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR HYDROLOGY...MCW

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