Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 032325 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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725 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS CREATING COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVNG WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE U60S/ARND 70 IN MOST AREAS WITH EXCEPTION OF COAST AS THEY HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW. HV ONLY UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES THIS EVNG WITH SKY/WIND AND POPS ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING FOG OVR COASTAL ZONES AFT 06Z TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST TO NEARLY 50F IN THE ALLAGASH. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM SW WIND AND A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR TO DATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. READINGS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 80S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND READINGS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ROLL INTO BANGOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND COOL THINGS OFF. VERY WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FINE FUELS HAVE CREATED THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WATCH. HAVE EXCLUDED THE COASTAL ZONES DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DEW POINTS TODAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR PROBLEMS FOR MONDAY. HAVE GONE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE MONDAY FORECAST EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND FIRE WEATHER THREAT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT W/A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED W/A WSW FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED ON 60% POPS FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST W/CHANCE ELSEWHERE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY THE GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY W/THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. WE ARE TALKING SB CAPES OF AROUND 300 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0+ C/KM. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.00" W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. THE NAM IS NOT AS STRONG W/THE INSTABILITY AND NOT AS MOIST AS THE GFS. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE NOTED ALONG W/A JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS FEATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES W/SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXTRAPOLATING THIS FORWARD WOULD PUT SOME INSTABILITY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. THEREFORE, ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. QPF WILL BE AT BEST 0/15-0.25" AND ONCE AGAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY W/SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. NW WINDS TAKE OVER AND PICK TO 15-20 MPH W/GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP BACK ON WEDNESDAY AS SECOND FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 30+ MPH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 60 AND AROUND 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO A TAD COOLER. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY W/A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRNG-LIKE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. USING A CONSENSUS APCH, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS AND LEAN W/JUST SHOWERS ATTM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY MAY. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORECAST FOR BHB AND BGR AFTER 07Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 20-30KTS LATE IN TAF VALID TIME. SHORT TERM: POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS(CIGS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: QUIET CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: ANY POTENTIAL FOR SCA WILL BE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. ATTM, DECIDED TO CAP GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR NOW. MIXING LOOKS TO BE BETTER OVER THE LAND W/FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .FIRE WEATHER...
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TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT COASTAL HANCOCK AND COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT COASTAL HANCOCK AND COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT/VJN AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/HEWITT MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/HEWITT FIRE WEATHER...MCW

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