Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070053 AAA AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 853 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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830 PM UPDATE... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHER MAIN WOODS DOWN TO ACADIA. 700MB MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE. IT HAS CLEARED OUT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THINGS TO COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S...EVERYPLACE ELSE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-40S WITH THE CLOUD COVER. GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL DECREASE BELOW 10KTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL A NICE NIGHT EXPECTED WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR TWO DOWNEAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION. THIS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SOME PATCHY STATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MID 70S OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE LATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY...INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NRN MAINE UNTIL SUN EVNG...IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE SUN EVNG INTO MON EVNG. MON EVNG THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE AS A WARM FRONT AS A NEW LOW DEEPENS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. TUES MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO NRN MAINE...INTERIOR DOWNEAST SHOULD BREAK INTO THE WRM SECTOR TUES MRNG...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...TO EARLY EVNG. TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE...THE NOW MATURE LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE BTWN THE FRONT IN THE SRN GULF OF MAINE AND THE LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW REMAINING STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...SLOWLY FILLING. WED EVNG BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING SE ACROSS NRN MAINE...BRINGING ALONG THE TROUGH INTO NW MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW MOVES EAST TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH TO CENTRAL MAINE. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 30 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS SAT EVNG THROUGH SUN EVNG WITH SCT SHOWERS SAT. VFR CONDITIONS SUN EVNG THROUGH MON MRNG. DECREASING CEILINGS MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...MVFR CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON BHB AND BGR LATE AFTERNOON MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS WEAKER THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG ALOFT. DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL MIX DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUMONT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER

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