Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030715 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 315 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A WEAK AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THE 925 MB TEMP ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WAS +12C AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER 1-2C OF WARMING TODAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS 70F AT CARIBOU...AND WITH A MILDER START TO THE DAY AND WARMER AIR MASS THERE IS NO REASON THAT TEMPS WILL NOT BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST INLAND AREAS TODAY. USED YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS A STARTING POINT AND RAISED THEM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY PEAK OUT BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM AND WILL THEN FALL WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...AND A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM 16-20Z ACROSS JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. ANY SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT WITH SW FLOW. THE COOLEST TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY, PLACING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION; TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING 80. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OWING TO THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH OR MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, WHILE MUCH OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN REGIONS. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY; WHILE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT, COVERAGE ISN`T ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH, SO THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. QPF WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN SPITE OF LOTS OF SUNSHINE, TUESDAY WILL BE BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WHICH MEANS COASTAL AREAS WILL FINALLY SEE SOME WARMER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE SAME EXTENT AS ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ESPECIALLY BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE OWING TO THE DRIER AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING AND LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY PRODUCE LOW CEILINGS AT KBHB. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEFLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. NORTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, WITH WAVES BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT IN RESPONSE. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND LESSEN, AS WILL THE WAVES. AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. && .FIRE WEATHER...JUST PRIOR TO GREEN-UP THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 PCT, AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 30 PCT TUESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SPS FOR FIRE DANGER OR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MIGHT BE REQUIRED. FOR NOW WILL MAKE MENTION OF THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE MORNING SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS. && .CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMP YESTERDAY AT CARIBOU WAS 70 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WITH A HIGH AOA 70 DEGREES. THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE DATE FOR THE 1ST 70 DEGREE DAY AT CARIBOU IS MAY 2ND. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS FIRE WEATHER...CB CLIMATE...CB

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