Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311140 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...A LOW WILL BE EXITING TO THE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW MAINE THURS MRNG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE WRM FNT WILL MOVE INTO CTNRL MAINE BY AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER...ITS ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE OVER SRN JAMES BAY. BY FRI MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF MAINE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTEND SW FROM ERN NEW BRUNSWICK ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER PA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SAT MRNG...WHEN THE SECONDARY LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD...THE ECMWF NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING THE PRECIP BAND BACK ACROSS CNTRL MAINE. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THE CNTRL US TO NRN QUEBEC. A NEW LOW MOVES SE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SAT EVNG THE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE RIDGE MOVES OVER MAINE THE NEW LOW MOVES TO SWRN QUEBEC. EARLY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES TO NWRN MAINE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TO CAPE COD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS MOVES IT TO ERN MAINE SUN MRNG...THEN EAST INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER SE QUEBEC...BY SUN EVNG OVER ERN NEW BRUNSWICK. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES WED...HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NGT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY MID DAY THURS MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT LIGHT SNOW...BCMG MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER NIGHT THURS NIGHT WITH PCPN CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON FRI. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN PERSIST TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD LOCALLY BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA WED THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY FRI MRNG THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON

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