Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231222 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 822 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. KFVE IS REPORTING SNOW THIS HOUR AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW A DUSTING IN SOME PLACES ALREADY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS MAINE TODAY...DRAWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MAINE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A 34 DEGREE CUT OFF TEMPERATURE FOR RAIN. WINDS POPULATED FORM MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL POPULATE WITH THE SUPERBLEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SO WILL USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WILL POPULATE ALL GRIDS WITH THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM:EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FOR SEAS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS. WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE AROUND 3 FEET/7 SECONDS AND SOUTHEAST SWELL 1-2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. EXPECT COMBINED SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III LATE SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH RAINFALL OF GENERALLY 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSER TOTALS DOWNEAST. AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS

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