Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021000 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE...A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AT DAYBREAK. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A 30-35 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...BUT MORE SO ACROSS THE MID COAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...WEB CAM IMAGES...AND SATELLITE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM TODAY. THE 925 MB TEMP ON THE 00Z/2ND KCAR SOUNDING WAS +8C AND THE MODELS INDICATE 3-4C OF WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-7F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH PRES SITTING OFFSHORE. OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN IT WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE WILL PEAK AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN FALL WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE AND WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES...BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY. M/SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. BASED ON THE LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MILD AND FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER INCREASING MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK WAVE COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BACK INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER, THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE COOLER OWING TO ONSHORE FLOW; HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, THOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING; PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LESSEN ONCE THE SUN SETS AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. AGAIN, CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE FRONT`S WAKE. THEREFORE, WE WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT, BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY IMPACT KBHB. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AT KBHB THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW/SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO ISSUES OF NOTE. LIGHT WIND AND SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT OR LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS IN PENOBSCOT BAY. SHORT TERM:NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN RESPONSE. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... JAN-APR WAS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE 5TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB

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