Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 051008 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 608 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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605 AM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING; WINDS AT BAR HARBOR HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST IN JUST THE PAST HALF HOUR. SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END AS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING, JUST MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, TEMPS, AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK OR SO AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EVENING, IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS XPCTD WED THRU THU UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH MIXING ALF WITH STRONGER WINDS DURG DAYLIGHT HRS ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS ATTMS ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA...SPCLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING W OF THE FA...LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD FOR WED NGT...SPCLY IF A FRONTAL BAND OF MID CLDS REACHES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE LATE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING STUBBORN UPPER TROFFING TO HOLD JUST E OF THE CAN MARITIMES THRU THIS PD. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER AIR TRYING TO ENTER THE FA FROM WSW BEING HELD OFF...SPCLY FROM THE NE HLF OF THE FA DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST. THIS IN TURN...COULD RESULT IN TWO SHARPLY CONTRASTING REGIMES TO OCCUPY OUR FA...A CLDY COOLER AND SHWRY ONE ACROSS THE N AND E...AND POTENTIALLY SUNNIER...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW...SPCLY FRI AND SAT INLAND FROM THE COAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN SLOWLY SAG A COLD FRONT SWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SAT NGT THRU MON...BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHWRS TO THE S HLF OF THE FA SPCLY SUN AND MON. BOTH LOW AND SPCLY HI TEMPS...WHICH WERE OBTAINED BY UTILIZING CONSRAW BLENDED MODEL DATA FOR BETTER HI TRRN TEMPS AND EITHER CONSHPCBLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM OR THE SUPERBLEND FOR LOWER TRRN TEMPS...ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS FOR PTNS OF THE FA EVEN IF THE MODELS JUST A LITTLE OFF WITH FRONTAL PSNS SPCLY FRI AND SAT. WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY FOR SUN AND MON WHEN WE THINK THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES S OF THE FA INTO THE GULF OF ME. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES... WE KEPT MAX SHWR POPS IN THE HI CHC CATEGORY FOR EACH PD FOR THE TM BEING. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AREA POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD WED THRU FRI...THEN MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SHWRS...SPCLY NRN TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THEY WILL SUBSIDE AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD WED THRU FRI ATTM...WITH NEAR SCA WV HTS POSSIBLE MSLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S, RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FINE FUELS REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER. GIVEN THE DAY CREW`S COLLABORATION WITH THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE YESTERDAY AND AFTER SPEAKING WITH GYX THIS MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE COASTAL ZONES WERE INCLUDED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND DEWPOINTS TO DROP. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN FIRE WEATHER...HASTINGS

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