Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 251736 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 136 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... DIURNAL SHOWERS HV POPPED UP AS EXPECTED WITH JUST LGT QPF AMNTS THUS FAR. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CWA. PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO... 945 AM UPDATE... QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA. UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT. STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT FVE, CAR, PQI AND HUL. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME. SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2 FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.