Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180417 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1217 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. ICE MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST ON THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS ALONG WITH TRIBUTARIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AN ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN HAS CAUSED FLOODING. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM WASHBURN TO PRESQUE ISLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ATTENTION TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS VT AND NH SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SUN. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SAT MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE WITH AREAS FROM AROUND THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH THROUGH THE ST JOHN VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS/QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY EARLY SUN MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE SE OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA MON MRNG AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MON EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP. LOADED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF THROUGH MON MRNG A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF TO END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY GLOOMY WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER GULF OF MAINE LATE TUESDAY ADDING TO POPS AND QPF FOR PERIOD...EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 0.50" THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL BY LATE THURSDAY EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS DOWNEAST...BUT PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY...COOL... AND DAMP THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...VFR ALL SITES BY EARLY SUN MRNG. VFR CON SUN THROUGH MON MRNG. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING CEILINGS EARLY MON MRNG...MVFR CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. MVFR PREVAILING REDUCE TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS MON NGT INTO LATE TUES MRNG. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUES...MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD IN SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN AND MON. AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED MON NGT AND TUES.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AN ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN HAS CAUSED FLOODING. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM WASHBURN TO PRESQUE ISLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ICE MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST ON THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS ALONG WITH TRIBUTARIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT THEN WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. ICE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WHICH CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE/NO ADVANCE NOTICE. AN ICE JAM ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT FORT FAIRFIELD THOUGH WATER APPEARS TO BE FLOWING THROUGH THE JAM. ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...AN ICE JAM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAINT FRANCIS WITH ICE MOVING THROUGH FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA WHICH COULD POSSIBLY JAM.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/NORCROSS

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