Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160518 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 118 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BETWEEN CARIBOU AND FORT FAIRFIELD. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHICH INCLUDES THE CARIBOU...FORT FAIRFIELD AND PRESQUE ISLE AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE MORNING, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS, COASTAL DOWNEAST MAY BE A BIT COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW COOLS THINGS DOWN A BIT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CWA STILL INFLUENCED BY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TWO STORM SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BETWEEN CARIBOU AND FORT FAIRFIELD WHICH IS CAUSING FLOODING. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHICH INCLUDES THE CARIBOU...FORT FAIRFIELD AND PRESQUE ISLE AREAS. RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP. MUCH OF THE LOWER PENOBSCOT RIVER IS ACTUALLY ICE FREE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN MOSTLY FROZEN, ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS CAN BE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES WITH ICE MOVEMENT. RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...BERDES AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/BERDES MARINE...FOISY/MCW/BERDES HYDROLOGY...FOISY

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