Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 260802 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 402 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO 900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO -2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW HANGS ON. ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS OFFSHORE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.