Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260406 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUN MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR, WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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