Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221611 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1211 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1211 PM UPDATE...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS FALLEN APART AS OF MIDDAY NEAR BAXTER STATE PARK. SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WITH FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. A SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM ARE ACROSS NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A P/SUNNY SKY AND A MILD AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. A STEADIER RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE LOW STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH BUT IN NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY HIGH ELEVATION AREAS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MARITIMES. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL USE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO VLIFR FROM KCAR NORTH TO KFVE WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS TONIGHT IN RAIN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS/SEAS COULD BOTH REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...THEN IN RAIN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE FRIDAY. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE (4-7 FEET/7-8 SECONDS) ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LONGER PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL (2 FEET/9-1- SECONDS). SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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