Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 011338 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 938 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 0930 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE WHICH IS RISING A LITTLER SLOWER THAN FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL ALSO ADJUST DEW POINT AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ARE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY MID DAY THE LOW WILL BE WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WRN MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WNDS/SKY/AND POP. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED HPC QPF GRIDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SNOW AND THEN A WARM UP HEADED OUR WAY, BUT SHORT LIVED. A WARM OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY THURSDAY AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE REGION W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/MID-UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE ONSET, EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE HOLD W/TEMPS FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. THE BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS W/THE OCCLUSION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT AS LATE AFTERNOON ACPHS, THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO STICK W/TEMPS COOLING OFF AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO EVENT HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/A 40 KT LLVL JET. ATTM, DECIDED TO GO AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN RISING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT W/WARM LAYER SHOWING UP ON THE SOUNDINGS FROM 900-800MBS INDICATING SNOW GOING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE BLYR IS FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING(32F) W/RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY LIGHT ICING(<0.10 OF AN INCH) WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS. FRIDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY AS THE REGION GETS UNDER A WSW FLOW AND WARMER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DECISION WAS TO RAISE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST W/READINGS AOA 50F JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT W/COLD AIR FOR APRIL SET TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE COAST AND STALL AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP ALONG THIS FRONT FROM THE MID ATLC REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A GOOD DOSE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION AND DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU PREFER, IT COULD BE SNOW OR SNOW AND RAIN W/WIND. THERE STILL EXISTS DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE ARCTIC FRONT OFF THE COAST W/LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR A COLDER SCENARIO W/SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLES POINT TO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST(BANGOR) AND POSSIBLE UP INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN AND THEN AS THE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY, COLDER AIR POURS IN ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS, IT COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION W/SNOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND WINDS TO PICK UP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CONTINUE W/A CONSENSUS APCH AND LEAN W/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/SNOW-RAIN FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAN W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK ATTM. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES TO 80%. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO EARLY EASTER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVER W/ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY W/HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE S. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOW AS LOW PRES IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND THEN DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WX ELEMENT WILL BE SNOW AT THE START GOING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN CLEARING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN VFR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT W/MVFR DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR. THE WX ELEMENTS WILL BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AND WIND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL BUILD AS WELL APCHG HEIGHTS OF 10-13 FT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVER AND IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE MARITIMES ON EASTER SUNDAY W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.