Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 272210 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 6 PM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST POPS IN A LINE FM FORT KENT TO GREENVILLE FOR THIS EVNG AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPR LOW. EXPECT THIS WL DIE OFF IN THE NEXT HR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA COAST. THE LOW`S TRACK WILL TURN MORE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, TAKING IT AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS SUCH, SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THOUGH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE LOW SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT`LL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL A COUPLE OF TURNS AND WEAK SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY LEFT WITH A VERY SLOWLY DEPARTING MID LVL VORTEX INTO THE OPEN N ATLC FROM ERN NOVA SCOTIA...MEANING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS IS POSSIBLE FROM ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE FA TUE NGT. AFTWRDS...SLOW...BUT MORE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO LITTLE OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY WED INTO THU...AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS WEAK FLOW ALF REPLACES THE UPPER LOW. FCST HI TEMPS...WHICH WE INDICATE TO BE SLIGHTLY BLO AVG BOTH DAYS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET...CONSIDERING THE SUN AT MIDDAY THIS TM OF YEAR IS AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS MID AUG. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR WILL CONT TO KEEP OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT AND WED NGT A LITTLE MILDER THAN AVG. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BOTH THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY TAKING A SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE SE COAST ENE WELL S OF THE GULF OF ME FROM THU NGT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...WITH BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING...SPCLY SUN AND MON WHEN S/WV RIDGING ALF BEGINS BUILDING OVR NEW ENG AHEAD OF A NEW APCHG S/WV TROF SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHWRS LATE SUN AFTN INTO MON MORN MSLY ACROSS THE N WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY TOPPING THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE TM CVRG THEY OCCURRED LAST WEEKEND INTO ERLY THIS WEEK...AND WITH LESS WIND AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS (I.E...SPRINGLIKE...IF WE DARE SAY). && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL APPROACH IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 1000 FT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT MVFR CLGS WITH SHWRS POSSIBLE TUE NGT...MSLY NRN TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA COAST. GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND WAVES 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...NEAR SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD TUE NGT INTO WED MORN...THE WINDS AND WVS SUBSIDE LATER WED INTO THE LATE WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE LONG PD SWELL WVS FRI NGT INTO ERLY SUN FROM A RELATIVELY DISTANT SFC LOW TRACKING EWRD S OF THE GULF OF ME. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...XCPT WENT A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO ERLY SUN MORN ATTM FOR SWELL IMPACTS FROM THE LOW TRACKING WELL S OF THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.