Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030227 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1030 PM UPDATE... FRONT APPEARS TO HV SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF PRESQUE ISLE AS OF 02Z AS THEIR WINDS HV COME ARND TO THE SE. HV MASSAGED HRLY T/TD/WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS HAS ONCE AGAIN DVLPD IN SE MAINE AND IS GRADUALLY HEADING TWD COASTAL ZONES UNDER SE FLOW. EXPECT THIS WL OVERSPREAD EXTRM SRN AREAS SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LATEST MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE REDUCED CIGS BUT BUFKIT SNDGS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY SATURATED PROFILE BLO 1KFT AT BHB FOR THE BULK OF THE OVRNGT HRS. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT FEEL THAT THIS WL LKLY BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORABLE FLOW. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... 730 PM UPDATE... CDFNT HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED SOMEWHERE BTWN PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON. DWPTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS ALONG THE NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY/NB BORDER AS OF 23Z. IN CONTRAST DWPTS ACRS CNTRL PENOBSCOT CNTY ARE ARND 40F. HV UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR UPDATE DROPPING DWPTS LOWER ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK. EXPECT TEMPS WL PLUMMET IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS OVR THE FAR NORTH UNDER DRY AIRMASS AND CLR SKIES. STILL LOOKING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN COASTAL ZONES OVRNGT. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MAINE. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BEGIN TO ADVECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST TO NEARLY 50F IN THE ALLAGASH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM SW WIND AND A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR TO DATE. READINGS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN INLAND READINGS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ROLL INTO BANGOR BY MID AFTERNOON AND COOL THINGS OFF. VERY WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FINE FUELS COULD CREATE THE NEED FOR FIRE HEADLINES IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. HAVE GONE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MIXING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION TO AN UPPER JET ARRIVES...BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...MOSTLY FOR THE CROWN OF MAINE. TOWARDS BANGOR...RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO BE MEASURED IN HUNDREDTHS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME READINGS AROUND 70F FOR BANGOR. THE NW FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY SEA BREEZE ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THAN MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION FROM THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...MAKING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PROGRESSIVELY COOLER DAYS AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIE OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. CONTINUED BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED AT THIS POINT AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT BHB IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. BGR WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS DECK WITH JUST SCTD 800 FOOT CLDS EXPECTED TWD DAYBREAK. VFR EXPECTED FROM 15Z ON AT BHB. SHORT TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS BHB AND BGR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS NORTH OF PQI ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 35 KTS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: CALM CONDITIONS OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL CONTINUE. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY WELL OFFSHORE...BUT THE FOG THREAT SHOULD LEAVE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/MCW MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/MCW FIRE WEATHER...

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