Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201440 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE... USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS. ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

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