Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170247 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1047 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIP...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AT 00Z SAT WILL DEEPEN AND CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE WAVE REMAINS OPEN OR TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AS THE ENERGY EXITS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SAT EVE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SAT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN SAT EVENING. THE AREA IS MORE OR LESS IN A COL REGION SUN WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND COOL DAY. THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY COMBINE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OF RAIN OR GRAUPEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE WEATHER LIKELY GOES DOWNHILL BY MON NIGHT AND REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SPRING-LIKE. A DEEP UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SET UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL SET UP A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND BATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INITIALLY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT AS RIDGING HOLDS ON JUST EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MARITIMES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR FALL AS SOME WET SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LONG RANGE HEMISPHERIC MODELS...CFSV2...AND CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY WOULD POINT TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR SUN INTO MON ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR MON NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THERE MAYBE A SHORT WINDOW WITH ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS THAT COULD REQUIRE A SCA FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER ICE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON OUR NORTHERN RIVERS. THREE ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE FIRST ONE IS ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORT FAIRFIELD/CARIBOU TOWN LINE. THE BACKUP OF WATER FROM THIS JAM WAS FLOODING GRIMES ROAD AND THE ROAD REMAINS CLOSED. THE ICE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TODAY, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS HAVE NOT WORSENED, SO THE FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE SECOND JAM IS LOCATED AT DICKEY BRIDGE...WITH THE THIRD NEAR FRENCHVILLE...BOTH ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER. THE ONLY KNOWN FLOODING IMPACTS WAS TO A VERY RURAL ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE, AND WATER LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE RECEDED SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT JAM WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE ICE JAM AND FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWMELT GOING AND KEEP RIVERS RISING. THEREFORE, ICE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALONG THE AROOSTOOK, SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL. COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN THEREAFTER, SLOWING SNOWMELT AND LESSENING RIVER RISES. && .CLIMATE... THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL FEATURED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001-002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB MARINE...NORCROSS/CB HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/NORCROSS CLIMATE...CB

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