Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161650 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1250 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON THE FLOODING SITUATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT COASTAL DOWN EAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING RECORDED TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH AS FAR AS BANGOR BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND WELL INTO INTERIOR HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY EARLY SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STEADY SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CDFNT WL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. HV BUMPED POPS TO CHC FOR ENTIRE CWA FRI MRNG BUT LEAD WV WL PULL EAST INTO MARITIMES BY 18Z, LVG JUST SCTD SHOWERS ALONG FRONT ACRS NRN ZONES DRG THE MID-LATE AFTN HRS. MAX TEMPS FOR FRI WL BE IN THE U50S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S OVR NRN ZONES THEN DROPPING AS FROPA OCCURS. NEXT SYSTEM WL MV INTO MAINE SAT MRNG AS 5H VORT MAX DROPS THRU SRN QUEBEC. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MV INTO WRN ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS THEN SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY WITH MOST LOCALES LKLY RECEIVING MEASURABLE PCPN ON SATURDAY. THUS HV BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTN. SAT NGT WV WL PULL EAST BRINGING PCPN TO AN END POSSIBLY AS SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN ZONES WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACRS THE CROWN BFR WINDING DOWN BY 06Z SUN. HV LEFT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS EXTRM NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY FOR SUNDAY AS WK H5 WV DROPS SOUTH IN NW FLOW, THO CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ANY PCPN WL OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM WL FEATURE UNSETTLED WX AS H5 LOW DROPS THRU CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND CLOSES OFF OVR UPR MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SFC, THIS WL RESULT IN LOPRES ACRS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WITH EXTENSIVE SRLY FLOW COMING IN FM THE ATLANTIC THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS WL ADVERTISE CHC/LKLY POPS EACH PD THRU END OF LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON FRI IN -SHRA. MORE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS WAVE DROPS IN SATURDAY POSSIBLY ENDING AS -SN ACRS NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE SAT NGT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRI MRNG INTO FRI EVNG AS SEAS RANGE FROM 4-6FT AND WINDS GUST NEAR AND POSSIBLY OVER 25KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... A LARGE ICE JAM FORMED NEAR THE DICKEY BRIDGE ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALLAGASH. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS STRETCH OF RIVER. WILL BE WATCHING THIS JAM AND ITS POTENTIAL TO MOVE DOWNRIVER TOWARDS ST FRANCIS AND FORT KENT. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE MID-UPPER 50S TODAY AND STAYING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...EXPECT ICE TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND MOVING ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY CHANGE TO THE JAM ALONG AROOSTOOK UPSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD AND THAT FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE. RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP. MUCH OF THE LOWER PENOBSCOT RIVER IS ACTUALLY ICE FREE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN MOSTLY FROZEN, ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS CAN BE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES WITH ICE MOVEMENT. RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR MARINE...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR HYDROLOGY...FOISY/MCW

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