Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050201 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1001 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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10 PM UPDATE... YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO TAKE DOWN POPS A LITTLE LOWER FOR CURRENT HOUR AS AIRMASS IS STILL DRY AHD OF CDFNT. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED FOR NOW. 750 PM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HRLY T/TD VALUES IN LINE WITH CURRENT VALUES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOME 10-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL AS FROPA OCCURS ACRS ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z. EXPECT THAT H8 TEMPS WL NOT REALLY PLUMMET UNTIL AFT MIN TEMPS ARE REACHED ARND SUNRISE. AS FOR POPS DRG THE OVRNGT HV DROPPED LKLY POPS AS IT APPEARS JUST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WL ACCOMPANY FRONT THRU NRN ZONES RIGHT ARND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWING JUST MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF CWA INTO QUEBEC WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES ACRS WRN ZONES. HV RMVD THUNDER MENTION FOR TONIGHT AS WHAT LITTLE IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING THERE WAS HAS DROPPED OFF UPSTREAM. OVERALL, EXPECTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF WITH BNDRY. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... THE BIG ITEM HERE IS THE FIRE DANGER AND THIS IS ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY SITES ACROSS THE REGION W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE DOWNEAST COAST AS A SSW WIND KEPT TEMPS DOWN. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG & AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC BACK INTO ONTARIO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT W/A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED W/IT. 12Z UA SHOWED DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED FROM 700MBS AND ABOVE. THERE IS A NICE JET MAX FROM 700-500MBS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO AID IN SOME FORCING. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHERN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY BUT AGAIN THIS IS ELEVATED AND CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5 C/KM W/LIS AROUND 0 AND PWS AT BEST AROUND 0.90". THEREFORE, INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WESTERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BUT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. FOR TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY W/SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST. CLEARING AND NW WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL PLEASANT. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE AT BEST AROUND 0.10" AND THIS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LONG CORRIDOR OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SPRINKLE TO SOME NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE ALONG A BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST, AND WARMER MORE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND PUSH NORTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AS IT PRESSES INTO THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH, AND FORM A TRIPLE POINT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE LOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH A BIT UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH DOWN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRYING SHOULD FOLLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS BECOME NW AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS EXPECTED 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NW WINDS ON TUESDAY COULD HIT GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK GRADIENT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE COASTAL AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ONLY A 0.10" OR LESS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OF UP TO 30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. FINE FUELS REMAIN DRY DUE TO RECENT SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. COLLABORATED W/THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE AND GYX ON THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDED TO GO W/A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY MINUS THE COAST AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE LATER SHIFTS AS WHETHER OR NOT THE COAST WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER FIRE WEATHER...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT

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