Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 150008
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
808 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDING SE FROM QUEBEC CAN BE SEEN
ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF QPF/RAINFALL. A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED W/THE BOUNDARY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
W/CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NW LATER TONIGHT AND STAY UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA AT 10 TO 20 MPH WHILE FURTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH.

HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO SHOW READINGS DROPPING
NOW INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S W/DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. THE LATEST FORECAST MINS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THE DAY WILL THEN TURN OUT
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE
SOUTH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE MAINE DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...OR WHETHER THE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS MAINE.
EITHER SCENARIO WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY. RAIN TOTALS AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW COULD THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP EARLY THIS EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SEAS
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BE BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN SOLID
ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS
CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE EDGES IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS.
ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES W/ICE MOVEMENT.

RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/HEWITT


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