Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211038 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 638 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES NEEDED. RAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA. LINE OF STORMS OVER THE OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND RACING NORTHEAST THAT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. WE DO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP THE STEADY RAIN. WINDS HAVE COME UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS IN COASTAL HANCOCK HAVE TOPPED 45 MPH FOR WIND GUSTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE. DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE. VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50 INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER PATTERN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...FOISY

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