Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010429 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1229 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1229 AM UPDATE: MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWN EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS DOWN EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU. LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AT 00Z FRI MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FRI. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI. WED NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL COOLING. THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY THU WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME OVERRUNNING SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING THAT ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FROM AROUND THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH THAT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER A SFC WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE DOWNEAST REGION. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL AT LEAST BE WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE 50S DOWN EAST. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE ARE SOME STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW WARM IT GETS DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SW OF THE CWA. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT TODAY THAT THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OR DOWNEAST REGION SAT MORNING AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES SAT EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM...BUT AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRACK THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE CWA. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND COLD FOR MON-TUE AS HIGH PRES FOLLOWS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THU. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY THU AND SHOULD BE IFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SOME SNOW AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS SAT IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 9 PM UPDATE...WE OPTD TO POSTPONE THE SCA THAT WAS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TIL 09Z (5 AM) WED MORN. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOWED WIND GUSTS AND WVS BLO 25 KT/5 FT ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS AND MODELS DO NOT BRING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT+ UNTIL THE PREDAWN HRS WED MORN...AT WHICH POINT THE SFC PRES GRAD TIGHTENS OVR OUR WATERS AS LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE OPEN ATLC. ORGNL DISC...ALTHOUGH WIND/SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NJ COAST INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS EAST TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THRU THU. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A GALE IS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SAT MORNING AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORTON/CB MARINE...NORTON/CB

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