Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021651 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1251 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. BASED ON THE LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MILD AND FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER INCREASING MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK WAVE COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BACK INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER, THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE COOLER OWING TO ONSHORE FLOW; HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, THOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING; PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LESSEN ONCE THE SUN SETS AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. AGAIN, CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE FRONT`S WAKE. THEREFORE, WE WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT, BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN RESPONSE. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... JAN-APR WAS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE 5TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB

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