Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250117 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 917 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 917 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ACROSS WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES BACK INTO MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WAS JUST 928 FT AND THE 925 MB TEMP WAS -1.3C. THE RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT WFO CARIBOU AND A NUMBER OF SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1/2" OF SNOW SINCE 630 PM AT PORTAGE. ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT ALL SNOW WILL FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWER ELEVATION SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION TREND FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BIT OF WET SNOW EVEN POSSIBLE DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN A FEW LOW ELEVATION SITES MAY PICK UP A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... START OF THE SHORT TERM PD WL BE THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE WITH UPR LOW PLAGUING THE CWA WITH ROUND AFTER ROUND OF WVS MVG THRU. CHC POPS WL CONTINUE OVR NW PORTIONS OF CWA SAT NGT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NR AND/OR JUST BLO FRZG ACRS THE NORTH WOODS GIVEN EXPECTED TEMP RISE INTO THE M40S ON SATURDAY AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR. COLD POOL ROTATES BACK ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO OFF AND ON SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS. FIRST WV LOOKS TO MV THRU IN THE MRNG WITH A BRIEF BREAK BFR THE NEXT WV SCOOTS IN FM THE EAST LATE AFTN. MAY EVEN SEE A CHC TO SEE THE SUN DRG THE DAY UNTIL IT SELF-DESTRUCTS. LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES MIX IN TWD MON MRNG BUT NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A DUSTING, AS BLYR LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR STRAIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPR LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY THO LATEST 12Z CMC MODEL KEEPS H5 TROF FM PARENT LOW PLAGUING CWA THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HWVR, BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD IN BRIEF UPR LVL RIDGING ON WED AND HV GONE WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS AND ABV CLIMO VALUES FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW. SHORT TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. ANY HEAVIER -SHSN EXPERIENCED MAY DROP TERMINALS DOWN TO BRIEF IFR. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT BHB AND BGR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA BEGINNING MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FARRAR MARINE...CB/DUDA/FARRAR HYDROLOGY...DUDA/CB

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