Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 061952 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 352 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION. THIS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SOME PATCHY STATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MID 70S OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE LATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY...INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NRN MAINE UNTIL SUN EVNG...IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE SUN EVNG INTO MON EVNG. MON EVNG THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE AS A WARM FRONT AS A NEW LOW DEEPENS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. TUES MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO NRN MAINE...INTERIOR DOWNEAST SHOULD BREAK INTO THE WRM SECTOR TUES MRNG...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...TO EARLY EVNG. TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE...THE NOW MATURE LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE BTWN THE FRONT IN THE SRN GULF OF MAINE AND THE LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW REMAINING STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...SLOWLY FILLING. WED EVNG BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING SE ACROSS NRN MAINE...BRINGING ALONG THE TROUGH INTO NW MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW MOVES EAST TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH TO CENTRAL MAINE. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 30 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS SAT EVNG THROUGH SUN EVNG WITH SCT SHOWERS SAT. VFR CONDITIONS SUN EVNG THROUGH MON MRNG. DECREASING CEILINGS MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...MVFR CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON BHB AND BGR LATE AFTERNOON MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS WEAKER THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG ALOFT. DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL MIX DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.